Why Sainz and Albon remain cautious on long-awaited Williams upgrade package

On Thursday in Azerbaijan, Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon will finally be able to try the Williams FW48 upgrade package that has been in the pipeline since the start of the season.

Aware that the car had some fundamental issues, the Grove team decided at an early stage to focus most of its R&D resources on one big hit, led by a revised and lighter chassis, along with a new aero package.

Those shaved kilos will provide an instant lap time benefit. However, just how much progress the FW48 can make relative to midfield pack leaders Alpine, Racing Bulls and Audi remains open to question, given that all have made progress since the Baku updates were designed and signed off.

In other words, Williams are starting from so far behind that even a decent performance gain relative to the old spec won’t necessarily result in a significant climb up the pecking order.

“To be honest, I think probably in Madrid we hit rock bottom of as low as you can get around a race track for Williams,” said Sainz. “Because we were more than three seconds off the pace, more than a second and a half off the midfield guys.

“And it gets to a point where obviously all the lack of development of the year had accumulated until that point, and now we bring something that is more in line with what we should have started the year with.

“It's still what we should have started – not race 14 or race 15 of the season. So we're still carrying the deficit and the issues of the winter, and it will take all the way until next year, even halfway through next year, to get to a performance level where I think it's reasonable, and where the team can show their capacity.”

Sainz acknowledges that the lap time gain might not be enough to make a difference to the prospects of scoring points this weekend.

“Well, I know in a track like Madrid we were one and a half seconds off the midfield leader,” he said. “And I know we are not bringing one and a half seconds to Baku, so it will not be a disappointment because I'm realistic, and I know which numbers we are we're playing with.

“And then there's track characteristics. Baku could be a good track for us in general. Like it was in Miami, like it was in Montreal, like it was maybe in Monaco that we are a bit closer.

"Monza we were closer than Madrid. But it doesn't take away the fact that when we go back to Austin or to Malaysia we will be back suffering more than here, maybe."

Albon is also keeping his feet on the ground regarding what the upgrades can bring.

“They’re significant if they work, so let’s see how it goes,” said the Thai driver. “We have to be honest with ourselves. We know what it should do on paper. I think the weight’s been a big talking point, and normally weight’s a guarantee, so hopefully it’s going to put us in a good place.

“The team have done a massive job back at the factory. To do a chassis change in the middle of a season is not easy. So, it’s putting us in a good place. Whether that’s to fight the midfield now, time will tell.”

Nevertheless he is confident that the changes will move things in the right direction.

“They normally work on the sim, yep,” he said. “That’s where a lot of our calculations come from. I think we’ve seen before that sometimes the sim and the track don’t always correlate, but I’m hopeful.

“Cosmetically, you won’t see the car to be so different, but there are some small, good changes in the car that will also hopefully improve the balance as well.”

He added: “Obviously we’ve been carrying a substantial weight penalty this year so far, and I think going into this weekend we’ve got ballast on the car. So, you could imagine there’s a big swing.

“It’s again a testament to how much work we’ve actually been doing behind the scenes. And I think a lot of new technology and a lot of new innovation was done to achieve that.

“The weight itself is obviously a big thing, and weight is a guarantee in terms of lap time. So that’s why we kind of know it will be a good step, regardless of how the aero side performs.”

Albon knows that Williams are chasing a moving target as rivals have made substantial gains as they bring new parts every few races.

“It’s a good upgrade, but I think what you have to also appreciate is just how well the midfield especially this year are upgrading as well,” he said. “If you look at the development rate of this year, it’s huge.

“And so even though we have a big upgrade, it’s not a magnitude that can outpace the midfield at the minute. So, it’s a good one, and I think in any other year it would have been a massive one.”

What makes the timing more poignant is that in 2025, Sainz qualified second and finished third in Baku after a weekend when everything fell into place.

Twelve months on, the focus is not so much on outright performance as proving that the systems and processes work, and that the team knows how to make a car faster.

"Last year we turned it around here because, one, we had a car that was performing really well in this kind of track and was genuinely within reach of a podium," Sainz said. "And then also we were capable of executing a very good weekend.

“This year I'm realistic that even with all the upgrades, we're still going to struggle to get out of Q1, and we're going to struggle to be at the top end of Q2.

“But at least it will give the team motivation that at least we're moving forward, and that if the step is in the right direction and it delivers what it is we have in the wind tunnel and in our simulations, then we have a path to follow and a direction to follow for going into next year.”