BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 arrives in Las Vegas?

Formula 1 enters the final triple header of the season as the Las Vegas Grand Prix hosts Round 22 of the championship, but what do the odds say about who might come out on top? Read on to find out...

Odds are provided by F1’s Official Betting Data Supplier ALT Sports Data, are subject to change and are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

The odds for the win

The Drivers’ Championship leader, Lando Norris, has upped his game in recent rounds to win back-to-back races convincingly. In Mexico, he crossed the line 30.324 seconds ahead of runner-up Charles Leclerc, and in Brazil he was 10.388 seconds clear of Kimi Antonelli. The McLaren driver is also developing a reputation for winning from pole, having prevailed five times in six starts from the front row this term.

Recent races would suggest that Norris’ biggest threat will come from the RB21 of Max Verstappen. The Dutchman will start in Nevada with seven consecutive rostrums to his name, including three victories in the same period. However, minor placings won’t help his cause in the title fight, as he needs to recover 49 points on the leader. Despite the mountain ahead, he holds fond memories of this circuit, taking top honours in 2023.

On the value end of the scale, George Russell is a worthy selection, given his success on street circuits this campaign. The Mercedes racer took victories on the streets of Montreal and Singapore, racking up five podiums in seven races on similar circuits. He’ll also arrive in Nevada as the defending race winner.

The odds for a podium finish

After the start that Oscar Piastri had to the season, looking at him for the minor podium places is not something that would have been expected at this stage of the campaign.

The Australian registered 14 top-threes in the first 16 rounds, but hasn’t joined in the post-race festivities since his third place at Monza. Piastri arrives in the States with three consecutive fifth-place returns to his name, but he knows how to win on the streets, collecting first prize in Jeddah and Miami earlier this year.

Ferrari enter the fray after failing to collect any points in Sao Paulo, the third such occurrence this year. However, they managed to put a driver on the podium in Las Vegas in 2023 and 2024. As it stands, Leclerc is their best chance of that, arriving with two in his past three outings.

Credit is due to the rookie, Antonelli, who snatched his second career top-three down in South America, and his best finish, a runner-up behind Norris. Can he repeat that feat this weekend?

The odds for a top-six finish

We need to dedicate some space to young Ollie Bearman, who has been nothing short of sensational in the latter part of the calendar. The Haas driver tackles the final street circuit of the year with four straight top-10s under the belt and consecutive top-sixes. He carries the lowest midfield finishing average in the previous five Grands Prix at 8.00. One factor that counts against the rookie, however, is his performance on street tracks this year, where his best return was ninth in Singapore.

Seven-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton continues his tough maiden season at Ferrari. He failed to cross the line in Brazil for his second DNF of the campaign, but has captured nine top-sixes across the year, making him a serious contender in Nevada. He also enjoyed a successful visit here in 2024, finishing second behind his then-team mate Russell.

Then we get the Williams duo of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, who are more than capable of a top-six finish. The issue for them is consistency, both from a driver’s standpoint and car performance. If they show up in Las Vegas, you can expect them to challenge for points, but we’ll find out which Williams fares better.

The odds for a top-10 finish

Albon leads the midfield in top-10s this season, racking up 11, but he hasn’t finished inside the cut since Monza. Next up in this rank in this division is rookie Isack Hadjar, who captured his ninth top-10 in Sao Paulo. Despite his impressive record, he’s struggled at the backend of the campaign, falling outside of the threshold in 60% of his past five races.

Moving away from youngsters, we settle on Fernando Alonso, who has driven himself into this category eight times this year, twice in the last five Grands Prix. Sticking with the veterans, Nico Hulkenberg produced his seventh top-10 performance of 2025 last time out. It was the second such result in three races, and still, he offers value for money.

Liam Lawson continues to show grit, despite an uncertain future in the sport’s top flight. The Kiwi took off from Brazil after finishing inside the first 10 spots for the sixth time in his rookie season. Finally, Pierre Gasly collected welcome points for Alpine down in South America for his fifth Grand Prix score of the campaign. However, he’s struggled with street layouts this year and will likely endure another tough weekend in Las Vegas.

The odds for who will be fastest in Qualifying

Norris has usurped the power in the past two Qualifying rounds, taking pole position in the subsequent Grand Prix. The McLaren enters Las Vegas with six starts from the front of the grid this season, but only two coming on street circuits. He now trails Verstappen by one in the Pirelli Pole Position Award.

Speaking of the four-time World Champion, he’s stopped the clock fastest on Saturday in three out of the seven street races this year, making him the most successful on these set-ups. He is closely followed by Norris, and last year’s Grand Prix victor, Russell.

Both of Russell’s pole positions this season have occurred on street circuits, that being Canada and Singapore respectively – both races that he went on to win. And while Piastri’s form might have seemingly dipped lately, he has qualified fastest on five occasions this term, the last one arriving in the Netherlands.

The odds for the winning team

McLaren find themselves back in the driver’s seat after handing over the reins to Red Bull for a few races, with the Woking outfit touching down in Vegas after two consecutive victories. They’ve produced the winning vehicle in 66.67% of Sunday races this year, but they’ll find it challenging in Las Vegas. While the papayas have snatched three street showdowns this year, the last one was in Monaco, courtesy of Norris.

Red Bull have found their groove late in the season and still hold a long shot of producing the Drivers’ Champion. The Austrian-owned team have collected five triumphs this campaign, courtesy of Verstappen, and provided the victorious car at this event in 2023.

Mercedes are the value for money offer in the Teams’ fight, arriving as the defending champions. They’ve also enjoyed themselves on the road circuits this year, winning two of the last three.

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